Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclone Tracking

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000

ABNT20 KNHC 122337

TWOAT 



Tropical Weather Outlook

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

800 PM EDT Thu Sep 12 2024



For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:



Active Systems:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 

Depression Seven, located over the central Atlantic Ocean.  The 

Weather Prediction Center is issuing advisories on Post-Tropical 

Cyclone Francine, located inland over the Mississippi, Missouri, 

and Tennessee tri-state area.  



East of the Leeward Islands (AL94):

Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue in association with a 

small area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles east of 

the Leeward Islands. The proximity of dry air near the system is 

expected to limit additional development over the next couple of 

days. Environmental conditions are expected to become even less 

conducive over the weekend while the system moves slowly 

west-northwestward.  Regardless of development, this system could 

produce locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds across the northern 

Leeward Islands on Friday.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. 

* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.



Offshore the Southeastern U.S.:

A non-tropical area of low pressure could form along a residual 

frontal boundary a few hundred miles off the southeastern U.S. 

coastline this weekend. Thereafter, some subtropical or tropical 

development is possible during the early part of next week while the 

system drifts to the north or northwest.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. 

* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.



$$

Forecaster Bucci

Post-Tropical Cyclone Francine Public Advisory Number 17

The NHC has issued its final advisory on this system.  Public Advisories from the Weather Prediction Center will provide updates as  long as the system remains a flood threat. Issued at 400 PM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024 

Post-Tropical Cyclone Francine Graphics

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated LATEST_W5_TIMESTAMP

Summary for Tropical Depression Seven (AT2/AL072024)

  ...DEPRESSION CONTINUES MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE OPEN TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...
 As of 5:00 PM AST Thu Sep 12
 the center of Seven was located near 18.3, -35.9
 with movement WNW at 16 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
 

Tropical Depression Seven Public Advisory Number 6

Issued at 500 PM AST Thu Sep 12 2024  

000
WTNT32 KNHC 122021
TCPAT2
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Seven Advisory Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072024
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
500 PM AST Thu Sep 12 2024
 
...DEPRESSION CONTINUES MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE OPEN
TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.3N 35.9W
ABOUT 800 MI...1290 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Seven
was located near latitude 18.3 North, longitude 35.9 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 
km/h), and a west-northwest to west motion at a slower forward speed
is anticipated over the next few days.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the  
depression could become a tropical storm tonight or on Friday.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.
 
$$
Forecaster Hurley/Blake
 

Tropical Depression Seven Forecast Advisory Number 6

Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 12 2024  

000
WTNT22 KNHC 122021
TCMAT2
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072024
ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
2100 UTC THU SEP 12 2024
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N  35.9W AT 12/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT  14 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N  35.9W AT 12/2100Z
AT 12/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.1N  35.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 18.9N  37.6W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 19.4N  39.8W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE   0SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 19.7N  41.5W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  40SE  20SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 19.8N  43.1W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  40SE  20SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 19.9N  44.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  40SE  20SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 19.8N  46.1W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 19.8N  48.4W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 20.3N  50.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.3N  35.9W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER HURLEY/BLAKE 
 

Tropical Depression Seven Forecast Discussion Number 6

Issued at 500 PM AST Thu Sep 12 2024  

000
WTNT42 KNHC 122022
TCDAT2
 
Tropical Depression Seven Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072024
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
500 PM AST Thu Sep 12 2024
 
Tropical Depression Seven appears somewhat more organized on 
satellite imagery this afternoon, with a compact circulation 
and a couple bursts of deeper convection near the center, though it 
has been exposed for portions of the day.  Subjective and objective 
Dvorak numbers indicate the system is close to becoming a tropical 
storm. However, the initial intensity will stay 30 kt, at the lower 
end of the estimates, until we get a little more definitive 
evidence of a tropical storm.

The cyclone continues on a west-northwestward heading, and the 
general motion is expected to continue over the next 2-3 days. The 
forward speed should gradually slow as the subtropical ridge to the 
north of the system weakens. Track guidance diverges considerably 
early next week, related to uncertainties with an amplifying trough 
over the north-central Atlantic Ocean and another ridge centered 
northeast of the Leeward Islands.  The GFS-based guidance has 
trended much farther west and faster, showing a weakening system at 
long range.  However, the ECMWF and its ensemble members still show 
a risk of a stronger system, so the forecast will stay on the 
northeastern side of the track guidance.  The new NHC forecast is 
faster and left of the previous one owing to the bulk of the 
guidance shifts during this cycle.

While environmental conditions are somewhat favorable for gradual 
strengthening, with low-moderate vertical wind shear and 
marginally warm SSTs, intensity guidance is even lower than the 
last cycle.  Slight strengthening seems most probable within the 
marginal environment, and the forecast continues to show a 45-kt 
peak in 5 days.  There is also the potential for greater 
strengthening beyond what is shown early next week as the cyclone 
will be in an environment characterized by lower shear, warmer SSTs 
around 28C, slightly more instability, but plentiful dry air aloft. 
The latest intensity forecast is very similar to the previous 
one, on the high side of the guidance envelope.

 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  12/2100Z 18.3N  35.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  13/0600Z 18.9N  37.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  13/1800Z 19.4N  39.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  14/0600Z 19.7N  41.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  14/1800Z 19.8N  43.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 60H  15/0600Z 19.9N  44.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  15/1800Z 19.8N  46.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  16/1800Z 19.8N  48.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  17/1800Z 20.3N  50.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Hurley/Blake
 

Tropical Depression Seven Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6

Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 12 2024                                              

000
FONT12 KNHC 122022
PWSAT2
                                                                    
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   6       
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072024               
ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD         
2100 UTC THU SEP 12 2024                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN WAS LOCATED NEAR   
LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 35.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER HURLEY/BLAKE                                        

Tropical Depression Seven Graphics

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 12 Sep 2024 20:25:32 GMT



 

Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 12 Sep 2024 21:23:04 GMT