West Pacific Tropical Cyclone Tracking

ABPW10 PGTW 230600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/230600Z-240600ZFEB2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/230151ZFEB2025//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/221951ZFEB2025//
NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 23FEB25 0000Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (EIGHTEEN) WAS 
LOCATED NEAR 14.0S 151.8E, APPROXIMATELY 388 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF 
CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, AND HAD TRACKED EASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 50 KNOTS 
GUSTING TO 65 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPS31 PGTW 230300) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (2) AT 22FEB25 1800Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (NINETEEN) WAS 
LOCATED NEAR 14.4S 177.6W, APPROXIMATELY 285 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF 
AVATA SAMOA, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTH- SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER 
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 
35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPS32 PGTW 222100 COR) FOR 
FURTHER DETAILS.
      (3) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 12.4S 
168.0E, APPROXIMATELY 640 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF NADI, FIJI. ANIMATED 
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 230247Z 89 GHZ AMSR2 MICROWAVE 
IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD AREA OF DENSE, PERSISTENT CONVECTION WITH 
FRAGMENTED FORMATIVE BANDS BEGINNING TO ORGANIZE. THE QUICK 
CONSOLIDATION, WHICH IS VERY TYPICAL OF STORMS SITUATED IN THE SOUTH 
PACIFIC CONVERGENCE ZONE, IS EVIDENT ON RECENT WATER VAPOR ANIMATION. 
THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH CONDUCIVE WARM (28-
29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE VALUES AND LOW TO MODERATE (10-15 
KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS 
ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 94W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST-
SOUTHEASTERLY AS IT INTENSIFIES OVER THE NEXT 24 -48 HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS IS MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
     C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
23.2S 166.6W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 24.4S 166.5W, APPROXIMATELY 517 NM 
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TONGA. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY CLASSIFIED AS A 
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE, GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED AS HAVING BOTH TROPICAL 
AND MIDLATITUDE CYCLONE FEATURES. ANIMATED MULTI SPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY AND 230246Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD AREA 
OF ROTATION WITH A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER 
(LLCC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION ISOLATED TO THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF 
THE CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT INVEST 92P IS 
CURRENTLY IN A MARGINALLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH COOL (24-26C) 
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, MODERATE (20-25KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, 
AND MODERATE OUTFLOW ALOFT. AS THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK TO THE 
SOUTHEAST IT WILL ENTER IN AN AREA OF INCREASED WIND SHEAR IN EXCESS 
OF 30-40 KNOTS AND STRONG WESTERLIES ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD 
AGREEMENT THAT 92P WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD AS A 
SUBTROPICAL LOW.  JTWC WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR INVEST 92P 
FOR SIGNS OF TROPICAL TRANSITION. FOR HAZARDS AND WARNINGS, REFERENCE 
THE FLEET WEATHER CENTER SAN DIEGO HIGH WINDS AND SEAS PRODUCT OR 
REFER TO LOCAL WMO DESIGNATED FORECAST AUTHORITY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 33 TO 38 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 997 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUBTROPICAL SYSTEMS.//
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