East Pacific Tropical Cyclone Tracking

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

000

ABPZ20 KNHC 122334

TWOEP 



Tropical Weather Outlook

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

500 PM PDT Thu Sep 12 2024



For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:



Active Systems:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently 

upgraded Tropical Storm Ileana, located a couple of hundred miles 

southeast of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula.



Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.



&&



Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Ileana are issued under 

WMO header WTPZ34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP4.

Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Ileana are issued under 

WMO header WTPZ24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP4.



$$

Forecaster Cangialosi

Summary for Tropical Storm Ileana (EP4/EP092024)

  ...ILEANA HEADED TOWARD SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA... ...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO BEGIN  THERE ON FRIDAY...
 As of 5:00 PM MST Thu Sep 12
 the center of Ileana was located near 20.5, -108.2
 with movement NNW at 9 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
 

Tropical Storm Ileana Public Advisory Number 2A

Issued at 500 PM MST Thu Sep 12 2024  

000
WTPZ34 KNHC 122332
TCPEP4
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ileana Intermediate Advisory Number 2A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092024
500 PM MST Thu Sep 12 2024
 
...ILEANA HEADED TOWARD SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA...
...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO BEGIN 
THERE ON FRIDAY...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 PM MST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.5N 108.2W
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of Baja California Sur Mexico from Santa Fe southward
* East coast of Baja California Sur Mexico from San Evaristo
southward
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East coast of Baja California Sur Mexico north of San Evaristo to
Loreto
* Mainland Mexico from Topolobampo to Huatabampito
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
Interests elsewhere in the Mexican states of Baja California Sur,
Sinaloa, and Sonora should closely monitor the progress of Tropical
Storm Ileana.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM MST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ileana was
located near latitude 20.5 North, longitude 108.2 West. Ileana is
moving toward the north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this
motion is expected to continue through Friday. A turn to the north
at a slightly slower forward speed is expected Friday night. On the
forecast track, the center of Ileana should pass near or over the
southern portion of Baja California Sur Friday and Friday night
before emerging over the southern Gulf of California by early 
Saturday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is expected before the storm reaches Baja 
California Sur. After that, gradual weakening is forecast while the 
cyclone is near or over land.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ileana can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC.
 
RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Ileana is expected to produce 4-6 inches
with localized higher amounts up to 8 inches across the coastal
areas of Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco through early Friday. From
Friday through Sunday, Tropical Storm Ileana may result in 4-6
inches, with localized higher amounts up to 8 inches, across
southern Baja California. For northwest coastal Sinaloa, Tropical
Storm Ileana may produce between 6-8 inches with localized higher
amounts up to 12 inches. This heavy rainfall will bring a risk of
flash flooding and mudslides to portions of the area.
 
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach
the coast of the southern Baja California Peninsula within the
warning area Friday morning, making outside preparations difficult
or dangerous. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the
watch area by early Saturday.
 
SURF: Swells generated by Tropical Storm Ileana will affect portions 
of the coast of west-central Mexico and the coast of the southern 
Baja California Peninsula during the next couple of days. These 
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current 
conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST.
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
 

Tropical Storm Ileana Forecast Advisory Number 2

Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 12 2024  

000
WTPZ24 KNHC 122037
TCMEP4
 
TROPICAL STORM ILEANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092024
2100 UTC THU SEP 12 2024
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 108.0W AT 12/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 80NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 108.0W AT 12/2100Z
AT 12/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 107.7W
 
FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 21.1N 108.8W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 22.7N 109.7W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 24.1N 110.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 25.3N 110.1W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 26.3N 110.2W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  20SE   0SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 27.2N 110.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 29.4N 111.8W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.9N 108.0W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 13/0000Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER HAGEN
 
 

Tropical Storm Ileana Forecast Discussion Number 2

Issued at 200 PM MST Thu Sep 12 2024  

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 122038
TCDEP4
 
Tropical Storm Ileana Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092024
200 PM MST Thu Sep 12 2024

The overall cloud pattern as seen in GOES-18 visible and infrared 
imagery does not appear to have changed very much from earlier 
today.  While the RMW still seems to be a bit large, the cyclone 
displays a large area of cold cloud tops with some evidence of 
curved banding.  The latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimates 
are a consensus T-2.5/35 kt from both TAFB and SAB, while recent 
objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS range from 33 to 42 kt. 
Based on the subjective and objective intensity estimates, the 
depression is being upgraded to Tropical Storm Ileana with an 
initial intensity estimate of 35 kt. 
 
The initial motion estimate is north-northwest, or 340/8 kt, which 
is a bit faster than before.  The overall synoptic steering pattern 
is unchanged in the models from earlier.  A deep-layer trough 
located over the western United States will continue to steer the 
cyclone toward the north-northwest through Friday, bringing the 
system near the southern portion of Baja California Sur.  After that 
time, this trough is forecast to weaken, which should cause steering 
currents to weaken.  This evolution should induce a slower motion 
toward the north, likely over the waters of the southern Gulf of 
California.  There were no major changes to the guidance for the 
first 36 to 48 h of the forecast, and very little change was made to 
the previous official forecast.  Thereafter, the guidance is a bit 
farther west, with some of the models keeping the cyclone moving 
north-northwestward over the Gulf of California rather than moving 
inland over mainland Mexico.  The NHC forecast was only nudged 
slightly west of the previous forecast, not as far west as the 
consensus aids during the 48 to 96 h time period.
 
Ileana is currently located within an environment of warm ocean 
waters, moderate vertical wind shear, and within a fairly moist low- 
to mid-level troposphere.  However, very dry air is evident on water 
vapor imagery to the northwest of the cyclone.  These conditions are 
unlikely to change before the cyclone reaches Baja California Sur on 
Friday, and the NHC forecast shows some strengthening before then.  
Land interaction with the peninsula should cause some weakening.  
When the center reaches the Gulf of California, the sea surface 
temperatures are quite warm.  While some restrengthening is possible 
after the cyclone emerges back over water, Ileana will encounter 
increasing westerly wind shear and drier air by hour 48, so it won't 
have much time to restrengthen.  After that time, weakening is 
expected as Ileana's convection is sheared off, and the cyclone is 
forecast to become a remnant low in about 72 h.  It should be noted 
that the GFS and ECMWF simulated satellite imagery show the cyclone 
becoming a remnant low a bit earlier around hour 60.  Although the 
cyclone will likely dissipate prior to 96 h, a 96 h point is carried 
as a remnant low for continuity.
 
Key Messages:
1. Tropical Storm Ileana will bring heavy rainfall to portions
of western Mexico and southern Baja California through this weekend.
This heavy rainfall will bring a risk of flash flooding and
mudslides to portions of the area.
 
2. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in portions of
the Baja California Sur on Friday, where Tropical Storm Warnings
are in effect.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  12/2100Z 19.9N 108.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  13/0600Z 21.1N 108.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  13/1800Z 22.7N 109.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  14/0600Z 24.1N 110.1W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 48H  14/1800Z 25.3N 110.1W   40 KT  45 MPH...OVER WATER
 60H  15/0600Z 26.3N 110.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  15/1800Z 27.2N 110.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  16/1800Z 29.4N 111.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H  17/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Hagen
 

Tropical Storm Ileana Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2

Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 12 2024                                              

081 
FOPZ14 KNHC 122038
PWSEP4
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM ILEANA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   2           
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092024               
2100 UTC THU SEP 12 2024                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ILEANA WAS LOCATED NEAR       
LATITUDE 19.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
CABO SAN LUCAS 34  X  30(30)   9(39)   X(39)   X(39)   X(39)   X(39)
CABO SAN LUCAS 50  X   5( 5)   2( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
SAN JOSE CABO  34  X  34(34)  11(45)   X(45)   X(45)   X(45)   X(45)
SAN JOSE CABO  50  X   5( 5)   3( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
LA PAZ         34  X   2( 2)  16(18)   3(21)   1(22)   X(22)   X(22)
LA PAZ         50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
LORETO         34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
GUAYMAS        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
HUATABAMPO     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
LOS MOCHIS     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER HAGEN                                                    

Tropical Storm Ileana Graphics

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 12 Sep 2024 23:33:23 GMT



 

Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 12 Sep 2024 21:28:53 GMT