Indian Ocean Tropical Cyclone Tracking

ABIO10 PGTW 201800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/201800Z-
211800ZDEC2024//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
13.4N 82.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 84.2E, APPROXIMATELY 234 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE 
AND 201208Z SSMIS F16 91GHZ IMAGERY DEPICT PERSISTENT CONVECTION 
RESEMBLING A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) FEATURE OVER A BROAD OBSCURED 
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES 
THAT 91B IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR OF 15-20 KNOTS, GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES OF 27-28 C. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 91B 
WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY CONSOLIDATE WITH SLOW AND ERRATIC MOVEMENT IN 
THE BASIN OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS, BUT THE CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO 
REMAIN BROAD AND WEAK. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 
23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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