Tropical Cyclone BIANCA (20S)

WTXS31 PGTW 232100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (BIANCA) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (BIANCA) WARNING NR 002    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   231800Z --- NEAR 17.8S 104.9E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.8S 104.9E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   240600Z --- 19.0S 103.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   241800Z --- 20.4S 102.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   250600Z --- 22.0S 101.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   251800Z --- 23.7S 101.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   261800Z --- 26.1S 101.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
232100Z POSITION NEAR 18.1S 104.5E.
23FEB25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (BIANCA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 584 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
231800Z IS 999 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231800Z IS
24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240900Z AND 242100Z.//
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WDXS31 PGTW 232100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (BIANCA) WARNING NR 
002//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 17.8S 104.9E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 45 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 584 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH,
AUSTRALIA
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 24 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAGGED
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE AND DISJOINTED CDO BECOMING GRADUALLY MORE
ORGANIZED WITH SUPPORT FROM A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL.
PRESSURE IS BUFFETING THE SYSTEM ON THE EAST SIDE, AS EVIDENCED BY
EXPOSED LOW CLOUD LINES. HOWEVER, THE VERTICAL STACKING OF THE
VORTEX HAS IMPROVED AND SOME DEGREE OF RADIAL OUTFLOW IS OBSERVED
IN ALL DIRECTIONS. A VERY RECENT 23/1835Z AMSR2 36 GHZ IMAGE
REVEALED THE EMERGENCE OF A MICROWAVE EYE, WHICH IS AN INDICATION
OF FURTHER IMPROVEMENT SINCE THE ISSUANCE OF THIS WARNING.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: AUSTRALIAN HIGH TO THE EAST

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   KNES: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   DEMS: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   APRF: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 35 KTS AT 231730Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 0-5 KTS
   SST: 27-28 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: THIS SYSTEM WILL RIDE GENERALLY SOUTHWARD
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE AUSTRALIAN HIGH, WHICH WILL SOON BRING
IT INTO COOLER WATERS. UNTIL THAT HAPPENS, MODEST INTENSIFICATION
AT A NEAR-RI PACE IS EXPECTED WITH A PEAK AROUND THE TAU 24 MARK
AND A GRADUAL DECLINE AS THE CONDITIONS WORSEN. A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH WILL INTRODUCE DRY AIR INTO THE VORTEX AND QUICKLY BEGIN ITS
TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM BEGINNING AT TAU 48 AND
COMPLETING BY 72.

MODEL DISCUSSION: THE TRACK FORECAST WAS BASED ON THE CONSENSUS
MEAN WHICH WAS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS SPLIT BY THE POSSIBILITY OF RI IF AN EYE IS ABLE TO
DEVELOP. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST LIES BETWEEN THE MEAN OF THE
INTENSITY AIDS AND THE HIGHER INTENSITIES POSSIBLE WITH RI.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
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