Tropical Cyclone REMAL (01B)

WTIO31 PGTW 262100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (REMAL) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (REMAL) WARNING NR 006    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   261800Z --- NEAR 21.7N 88.4E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 21.7N 88.4E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   270600Z --- 22.9N 88.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   271800Z --- 24.0N 89.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   280600Z --- 25.3N 91.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
262100Z POSITION NEAR 22.0N 88.5E.
26MAY24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (REMAL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 54
NM SOUTH OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPECTIS TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (REMAL) MAKING LANDFALL AT
APPROXIMATELY 261800Z IN VICINITY OF BAKKHALI, INDIA. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS AT MONGLA, BANGLADESH, REPORTED 41KTS EAST-SOUTHEAST
WINDS 85NM NORTHEAST OF THE ASSESSED CENTER POSITION. TC 01B
IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD FROM TAU 00 TO TAU 12, 
FOLLOWED
BY A NORTHEASTWARD TRACK FROM TAU 12 TO TAU 36. NOW OVER LAND, THE
SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE PRIOR TO TAU 36.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED
FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 261800Z
IS 978 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261800Z IS 24 FEET.//
NNNN

WDIO31 PGTW 261500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (REMAL) WARNING NR 
005//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 20.9N 88.7E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 55 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 103 NM SOUTH OF KOLKATA, INDIA
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWARD AT 07 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 24 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING PRIMARILY ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF 
A BROAD CIRCULATION ALSO EVIDENT IN A 260944Z GMI 89GHZ IMAGE. THE 
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE 
AFOREMENTIONED IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KTS IS ASSESSED 
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE IMPROVING CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE AND 
SUPPORTIVE AGENCY AND OBJECTIVE FIXES LISTED BELOW.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK AND PERSISTENCE

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
POSITIONED TO THE EAST

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   KNES: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   DEMS: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 55 KTS AT 260738Z
   CIMSS ADT: 51 KTS AT 260900Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 5-10 KTS
   SST: 31-32 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD 

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01B WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE
OF THE STR TO THE EAST. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY 
OR INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY PRIOR TO LANDFALL AS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL 
CONDITIONS, INCLUDING HIGH ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LOW 
VWS, AND DUAL-CHANNEL OUTFLOW ARE OFFSET BY THE CONTINUED BROAD 
NATURE OF THE SYSTEM AND INCREASING LAND INTERACTION WITH THE 
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION. FOLLOWING LANDFALL, THE SYSTEM 
WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD AND WEAKEN DUE TO LAND INTERACTION. HOWEVER, 
IMPACTS INCLUDING HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE WIDESPREAD FROM 
THE SYSTEM CENTER DUE TO THE LARGE SIZE OF THE SYSTEM.

MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC TRACK MODELS AGREE THAT THE CENTER OF 
TC 01B WILL MAKE LANDFALL IN THE VICINITY OF THE BANGLADESH AND INDIA 
BORDER WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. DEPICTIONS OF THE ORIENTATION OF THE 
OVER LAND TRACK VARY DUE TO DIFFERING REPRESENTATIONS OF THE STEERING 
RIDGE AND THE STORM STRUCTURE, BUT ALL MODELS CARRY THE STORM SYSTEM 
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN BANGLADESH AFTER LANDFALL. MODEL GUIDANCE 
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT DISSIPATION WILL OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT 36 
HOURS AS THE SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH LAND.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: HIGH//
NNNN