Tropical Cyclone DANA (03B)

WTIO31 PGTW 250300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B (DANA) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B (DANA) WARNING NR 008    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   250000Z --- NEAR 20.8N 86.9E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF 
     SATELLITE AND RADAR
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 20.8N 86.9E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   251200Z --- 21.0N 86.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   260000Z --- 20.9N 84.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   261200Z --- 20.5N 83.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
250300Z POSITION NEAR 20.9N 86.7E.
25OCT24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B (DANA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 137
NM SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. 03B RECENTLY MADE LANDFALL
OVER EASTERN INDIA AND IS FORECASTED TO TRACK INLAND UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR TO THE WEST. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS
WESTWARD IT IS QUICKLY WEAKEN UNTIL DISSIPATION BY TAU 36.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 250000Z IS 988
MB.//
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WDIO31 PGTW 242100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B (DANA) WARNING NR 
007//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 20.2N 87.2E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 65 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 159 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 24 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL
DEFINED TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH PERSISTENT, THOUGH FLARING DEEP
CONVECTION OBSCURING THE LLCC. ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY AND A 241751Z
SCATTEROMETERY IMAGE INDICATES THAT 03B IS MEER HOURS FROM MAKING
LANDFALL OVER EASTERN INDIA. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON EIR, SCATTEROMETERY AND ANIMATED RADAR
IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE BASED ON A RANGE OF AGENCY DVORAK AND CIMSS AUTOMATED
INTENSITY ESTIMATES INDICATING 55-67KTS.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) OVER EASTERN MYANMAR.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   KNES: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   DEMS: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 56 KTS AT 241332Z
   CIMSS ADT: 61 KTS AT 241800Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 5-10 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE EQUATORWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 03B (DANA) IS ONLY A FEW HOURS FROM MAKING
LANDFALL OVER EASTERN INDIA. THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE LANDFALL NEAR
65KTS AND QUICKLY WEAKEN AS IT TRANSITS OVER MAINLAND INDIA. AS THE
SYSTEM PROCEEDS INLAND, A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE WEST
ASSERTS ITS INFLUENCE BY REDIRECTING 02B WESTWARD AND EVENTUALLY
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AS IS DISSIPATES NEAR TAU 48.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 03B
WILL MAKE LANDFALL BEFORE TAU 12 AND QUICKLY DIVERT WESTWARD AND
EVENTUALLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH DISSIPATION. RELIABLE MODEL
INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS UNANIMOUSLY INDICATING A SHARP DISSIPATION
TREND FOLLOWING LANDFALL. FOR THESE REASONS BOTH THE JTWC TRACK AND
INTENSITY FORECASTS ARE PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: HIGH//
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