Tropical Cyclone HONDE (23S)

WTXS33 PGTW 052100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (HONDE) WARNING NR 017//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (HONDE) WARNING NR 017    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   051800Z --- NEAR 34.9S 50.7E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 235 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 34.9S 50.7E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   060600Z --- 37.4S 52.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 16 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   061800Z --- 39.4S 55.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
052100Z POSITION NEAR 35.5S 51.1E.
05MAR25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (HONDE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 898
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 14
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
IMAGERY REVEALS AN EXPOSED CIRCULATION WITH DEEP CONVECTION
DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHEAST BY STRONG 35-40KT VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS CONVERGENT AS THE SYSTEM HAS
BEGUN TO EMBED WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL JET OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS.
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE NO LONGER SUPPORTIVE FOR THE SYSTEM
AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S WILL CONTINUE TO
ROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN EXTENT OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN GRADUALLY TO 40KTS BY
TAU 24 WHILE BECOMING BAROCLINIC AND FRONTAL. EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION WILL COMPLETE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS IS THE
FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL
HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 051800Z IS 988 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051800Z IS 30 FEET.
//
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WDXS33 PGTW 050900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (HONDE)      
WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 32.6S 49.0E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 50 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 780 NM SOUTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHWARD AT 09 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 23 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A RAGGED,
EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, WITH ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION
SHEARED TO THE SOUTHEAST. A 050514Z ASCAT-B BULLSEYE IMAGE REVEALS
A BROAD CENTER, WITH 45-50 KNOT WINDS OVER THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN
QUADRANTS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
BASED ON THE MSI AND ASCAT-B IMAGERY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS HAVE
CONTINUED TO DEGRADE, WITH STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, COOL SST
(23C) VALUES, AND EXTENSIVE DRY AIR THROUGH THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVELS. 
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE ASCAT-B DATA.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   KNES: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 44 KTS AT 050345Z
   CIMSS ADT: 33 KTS AT 050600Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 42 KTS AT 050600Z
   CIMSS D-MINT: 36 KTS AT 050241Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 37 KTS AT 050600Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY
UNFAVORABLE
   VWS: 30+ KTS
   SST: 23-24 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD
   OTHER FACTORS: DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23S WILL TRACK SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 36 ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN 
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED STR. TC 23S WILL WEAKEN STEADILY AS IT 
TRACKS UNDER STRONG WESTERLIES, WITH INCREASING (35-40 KNOTS) VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR, COOLING SST (19-23C), AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. THE SYSTEM 
WILL QUICKLY TRANSITION INTO AN EXTRA-TROPICAL LOW BY TAU 36 AS IT 
TRACKS UNDER THE JET CORE AND GAINS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS.  

MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCEPTIONALLY
TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 36, WITH A 40NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD IN
SOLUTIONS AT TAU 36. GEFS AND EPS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS ALSO IN VERY
GOOD AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
RELIABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUPPORTS A STEADY WEAKENING TREND
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.    

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: HIGH//
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