Tropical Cyclone PITA (08P)

WTXS32 PGTW 042100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (VINCE) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (VINCE) WARNING NR 007    
   03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   041800Z --- NEAR 18.2S 88.0E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 18.2S 88.0E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   050600Z --- 18.7S 85.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   051800Z --- 19.2S 84.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   060600Z --- 19.7S 82.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   061800Z --- 20.2S 80.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   071800Z --- 21.0S 75.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   081800Z --- 22.0S 71.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   091800Z --- 23.7S 68.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
042100Z POSITION NEAR 18.3S 87.5E.
04FEB25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (VINCE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1741
NM EAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
041800Z IS 963 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041800Z IS
35 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050900Z AND 052100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 11S (FAIDA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH) WARNINGS
(WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
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WDXS32 PGTW 042100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (VINCE)        
WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 18.2S 88.0E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 95 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 1741 NM EAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 35 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A COMPACT 
SYSTEM, WITH A RAGGED, INCONSISTENT EYE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL 
POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. DUE TO THE COMPACT NATURE OF THE SYSTEM, 
THE CIMSS OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN TOO LOW, RANGING FROM 61-
77 KNOTS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A GENERALLY FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT, WITH MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM SST VALUES (26-
27C). HOWEVER, NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS CLEARLY IMPINGING ON 
THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM AS EVIDENCED IN THE 041607Z MHS 
89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE, WHICH SHOWS A BREAK IN THE EYEWALL AND WEAKER 
DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM 
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE HIGHER END OF THE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY 
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 77-102 KNOTS.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHEAST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T5.0 - 90 KTS
   KNES: T5.5 - 102 KTS
   FMEE: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 77 KTS AT 041815Z
   CIMSS ADT: 61 KTS AT 041815Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 67 KTS AT 041815Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 74 KTS AT 041815Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 10-15 KTS
   SST: 26-27 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S IS FORECAST TO TRACK
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 96 ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE STR. A SLIGHT, SHORT-LIVED DIP IS POSSIBLE IN THE TRACK FROM
TAU 24 TO TAU 36 AS A MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES WELL TO
THE SOUTH. HOWEVER, THE STR WILL RE-BUILD DRIVING THE SYSTEM
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNTIL A MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES AND
RECURVES THE SYSTEM SOUTHWESTWARD AROUND THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF
THE STR. TC 13S SHOULD WEAKEN SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT DAY, WITH
RE-INTENSIFICATION ANTICIPATED AFTER TAU 72 AS POLEWARD OUTFLOW
IMPROVES INTO THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES.   

MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT, WITH A 55NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT TAU 96, DIVERGING TO
110NM BY TAU 120 WHEN THE SYSTEM BEGINS ITS RECURVE. PROBABILISTIC
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD LENDING
HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
REMAINS CHALLENGING, DUE IN LARGE PART TO THE COMPACT STRUCTURE OF
THE SYSTEM AND THE LARGE SPREAD IN RELIABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE.
HAFS-A SHOWS A WEAKENING TREND THROUGH TAU 36 TO ABOUT 83 KNOTS
THEN A STEADY RE-INTENSIFICATION TO 103 KNOTS BY TAU 108. COAMPS-TC
(GFS), ON THE OTHER HAND, IS ERRATIC AND UNLIKELY SHOWING A RAPID
WEAKENING TREND TO 60 KNOTS THEN FLAT TREND THROUGH TAU 120.    

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   TRACK 72-120 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
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