Tropical Cyclone RAE (19P)

WTPS32 PGTW 232100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (RAE) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (RAE) WARNING NR 004    
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   231800Z --- NEAR 16.6S 179.0W
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.6S 179.0W
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   240600Z --- 18.8S 179.3W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   241800Z --- 21.0S 179.4W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   250600Z --- 23.3S 178.7W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   251800Z --- 25.4S 176.7W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 18 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   261800Z --- 28.9S 169.6W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
232100Z POSITION NEAR 17.1S 179.1W.
23FEB25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (RAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 174 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 231800Z IS
988 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231800Z IS 28 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 240900Z AND 242100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
18P (ALFRED) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

WDPS32 PGTW 230900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (RAE) WARNING NR 
003//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 15.3S 178.8W
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 50 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 474 NM WEST OF PAGO PAGO
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 20 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS DEEP
CONVECTION OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) OF
TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P. DRY AIR WRAPPING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST
REVEALS THE TIGHT LOW-LEVEL CLOUD BANDING CIRCULATING INTO THE
OBSCURED CENTER. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH A POINT SOURCE ALOFT AND HIGHLY FAVORABLE
UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 230545 WSFM WMI COLOR-ENHANCED 37GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE HIGHLIGHTING THE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING
INTO CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS PLACED WITH MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AGENCY AND OBJECTIVE FIXES LISTED BELOW.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   APRF: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 57 KTS AT 230530Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 5-10 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG RADIAL

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P WILL CONTINUE TO BE
DRIVEN SOUTHWARD ON THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
EAST. AFTER TAU 36, THE SYSTEM WILL CURVE SOUTHEASTWARD HAVING
CROSSED THE RIDGE AXIS. IN THE NEAR-TERM FORECAST, THE ENVIRONMENT
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 80KTS DUE TO LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND STRONG
DIVERGENCE ALOFT. BETWEEN TAU 48-72, TC 19P WILL BEGIN SUBTROPICAL
TRANSITION AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER COOL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
AND BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THE JET TO THE SOUTH. THE SYSTEM WILL
WEAKEN AS THE SYSTEM UNDERGOES SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION AND BECOMES
FULLY SUBTROPICAL BY TAU 72.

MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG
AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL CURVE SOUTHEASTWARD ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE CROSS-TRACK SPREAD BY TAU 72
IS 165NM. THE JTWC INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY DURING THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE
FORECAST AS INDICATED BY SEVERAL RAPID INTENSIFICATION AIDS. THE
SPREAD BETWEEN PEAK INTENSITIES IS 10KTS BETWEEN 75KTS (HAFS-A) AND
90KTS (GFS). 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
NNNN