Tropical Cyclone PAUL (22P)

WTXS31 PGTW 180900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BHEKI) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BHEKI) WARNING NR 009    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   180600Z --- NEAR 17.4S 69.3E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.4S 69.3E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   181800Z --- 17.9S 68.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   190600Z --- 18.4S 66.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   191800Z --- 19.0S 64.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   200600Z --- 19.5S 61.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   210600Z --- 21.2S 56.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   220600Z --- 24.3S 53.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
180900Z POSITION NEAR 17.5S 69.1E.
18NOV24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BHEKI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 701
NM EAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 180600Z IS 963 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180600Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
182100Z AND 190900Z.
//
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WDXS31 PGTW 180900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BHEKI) WARNING NR 
009//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 17.4S 69.3E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 95 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 701 NM EAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 30 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS TC 02S HANGING
IN STRONG, MAINTAINING A CLOUD-FILLED EYE THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE
PAST SIX HOURS, WITH DEEP CONVECTION STILL FIRING OFF IN THE
SURROUNDING EYEWALL. A 180448Z NOAA-19 MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
REVEALED THAT THE VORTEX IS ALREADY STARTING TO DECOUPLE WITH THE
UPPER-LEVEL CENTER (OR EYE) DISPLACED EAST OF THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) BY ALMOST A FULL DEGREE OF LONGITUDE.
THIS SUGGESTS THAT THE CIMSS ESTIMATED SHEAR OF 12 KNOTS IS TOO LOW
AND THE ACTUAL SHEAR MAY BE CLOSER TO THE GFS AND ECMWF MODEL
INDICATED VALUE CLOSER TO 20-25 KNOTS. REGARDLESS, THE SYSTEM HAS
ALREADY STARTED THE DECOUPLING PROCESS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE ANIMATED MSI AND
ANALYSIS OF THE LOW-RESOLUTION MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE, ROUGHLY IN THE
MIDPOINT OF THE AGENCY CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM
T5.0 TO T6.0 AND CLOSE TO THE CIMSS DMINT AND DPRINT ESTIMATES.
ENVIRONMENT IS STARTING TO DETERIORATE RAPIDLY, WITH INCREASING
SHEAR AND MARGINAL SSTS OFFSETTING STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SAR DATA 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO THE EAST. 

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T6.0 - 115 KTS
   KNES: T5.5 - 102 KTS
   FMEE: T5.5 - 102 KTS
   FIMP: T5.0 - 90 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 77 KTS AT 180630Z
   CIMSS ADT: 84 KTS AT 180600Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 81 KTS AT 180500Z
   CIMSS D-MINT: 94 KTS AT 180137Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 90 KTS AT 180630Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL
   VWS: 10-15 KTS
   SST: 26-27 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 02S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD AT
A RELATIVELY SLOW PACE FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS IT SITS IN A WEAK
STEERING PATTERN, CAUGHT BETWEEN THE STRONG STR TO THE EAST,
ANOTHER RIDGE FAR TO THE WEST, AND A PASSING TROUGH TO THE SOUTH.
THE TRACK SHIFTS A BIT MORE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AFTER TAU 12, AS THE
VORTEX RAPIDLY DECOUPLES AND THE LOWER-LEVEL FLOW
EAST-SOUTHEASTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE MASCARENE HIGH TAKES OVER
AS THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE
TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE MASCARENE HIGH FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, PASSING NORTH OF PORT MATHURIN
AND VERY CLOSE TO BOTH MAURITIUS AND LA REUNION IN THE LATER PORTION
OF THE FORECAST. SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY INCREASE OVER THE
NEXT DAY AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY VERY DRY MID-LEVEL AIR PUSHING
IN FROM THE WEST. THE WILL WEAKEN SLOWLY AT FIRST, FOLLOWED BY MORE
RAPID WEAKENING THROUGH TAU 36. THE REMNANT VORTEX WILL THEN VERY
SLOWLY WIND DOWN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST, ULTIMATELY
DISSIPATING BY TAU 96, AND POTENTIALLY AS EARLY AS TAU 72. THE
SYSTEM IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO A SUBTROPICAL
LOW, BUT IF IT TRACKS FURTHER SOUTH THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST, IT
WILL LIKELY MAKE THE TRANSITION AFTER TAU 48. 

MODEL DISCUSSION: TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A MODERATE
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY, BUT HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS, WITH THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE CONVERGING ON A TRACK
CLOSER TO MAURITIUS AND LA REUNION. THE CONSENSUS MEAN IS CENTERED
ON THE ISLANDS, WITH GFS, GEFS AND UKMET ENSEMBLE TO THE NORTH AND
THE ECMWF, ECEPS, AND NAVGEM TO THE SOUTH. THE JTWC FORECAST RIDES
THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE NORTHERN GROUP AND JUST SOUTH OF THE
CONSENSUS MEAN THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST. CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM TO
TAU 72, THEN LOW. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
SYSTEM WILL STEADILY WEAKEN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH HWRF
AND COAMPS-TC SUGGESTING DISSIPATION AS EARLY AS TAU 48. THE JTWC
FORECAST IS A BIT MORE CONSERVATIVE AND DELAYS DISSIPATION DUE TO
THE CLIMATOLOGICAL TREND OF SYSTEMS IN THIS BASIN WHICH ONLY SLOWLY
SPIN-DOWN. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
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