Tropical Cyclone JASPER (03P)

WTXS31 PGTW 041500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (HIDAYA) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (HIDAYA) WARNING NR 007    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   041200Z --- NEAR 7.7S 38.6E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 7.7S 38.6E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   050000Z --- 6.9S 37.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
041500Z POSITION NEAR 7.5S 38.4E.
04MAY24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (HIDAYA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 849 NM 
NORTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 23S MADE LANDFALL BETWEEN 0200Z AND 
0300Z. AS THE SYSTEM HAS MOVED INLAND, TOPOGRAPHIC INTERACTION HAS 
CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO RAPIDLY DECAY. AN 89GHZ AMSR2 MICROWAVE IMAGE 
SHOWS A WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER THAT HAS LIMITED CURVED 
BANDING IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM IS 
FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT TWELVE HOURS AS IT TRACKS FURTHER 
INLAND. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON 
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR 
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 041200Z IS 996 MB. 
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041200Z IS 14 FEET.
//
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WDXS31 PGTW 040300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (HIDAYA) WARNING NR 
006//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 7.9S 40.8E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 55 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 110 NM SOUTHEAST OF DAR ES SALAAM,
TANZANIA
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 30 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS RAPIDLY ERODED AS IT APPROACHED TANZANIA OVER THE LAST 12
HOURS. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS SHRUNK AND CLOUD TOPS HAVE CONSIDERABLY 
WARMED. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON 
A NOTCH FEATURE, REMNANT OF AN OBSCURED EYE, IN THE EIR LOOP. THE 
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55KTS IS BASED ON THE LOW END OF AGENCY AND 
AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES, EXTRAPOLATED FROM THE 031905Z 
SCATTEROMETRY DATA, AND CONSISTENT WITH THE RAPID DECAY. ANALYSIS 
INDICATES AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH THE WARM SST OVER THE SOUTH 
INDIAN OCEAN AND MODERATE OUTFLOW OFFSET BY MODERATE VWS, LAND 
INTERACTION AND DRY AIR INTRUSION FROM THE AFRICAN CONTINENT.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: LOW- TO MID-LEVEL REFLECTION OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. 

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   DEMS: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   FMEE: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 53 KTS AT 032330Z
   CIMSS ADT: 59 KTS AT 032330Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 57 KTS AT 032330Z
   CIMSS DPRINT: 40 KTS AT 040000Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: UNFAVORABLE
   VWS: 15-20 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: AS TC HIDAYA CONTINUES TO ERODE AND LOSE
VERTICAL STRUCTURE, IT WILL TRACK MORE NORTHWESTWARD WITH THE LOW
LEVEL WIND FLOW, MAKING LANDFALL JUST SOUTH OF DAR ES SALAAM
SHORTLY AFTER TAU 12, THEN TRACK ALONG THE TANZANIAN COAST. THE
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, EXACERBATED BY FRICTIONAL EFFECTS, WILL
LEAD TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 24, POSSIBLY SOONER. 

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS SPREAD OUT WIDELY AND
ERRATICALLY AFTER TAU 12, LEADING TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST THAT IS LAID CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
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