Tropical Storm TORAJI (26W)

WTPN33 PGTW 140300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W (TORAJI) WARNING NR 020//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W (TORAJI) WARNING NR 020    
   03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   140000Z --- NEAR 21.0N 114.0E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 21.0N 114.0E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   141200Z --- 20.9N 113.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 01 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   150000Z --- 20.7N 113.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
140300Z POSITION NEAR 21.0N 113.9E.
14NOV24. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W (TORAJI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
79 NM SOUTH OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
IMAGERY (EIR) REVEALS A RAPIDLY DETERIORATING TS 26W, AS
A RESULT OF A CONVECTIVE DECAPITATION LEADING TO A FULLY EXPOSED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), AS WELL AS A HIGHLY
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, INCLUDING HIGHVERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(20-25 KTS), COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (25-26 CELSIUS),
AND NORTHEASTERLY COLD SURGE FLOW THROUGH THE TAIWAN STRAIT INTO
THE SOUTH CHINA SEA.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 140000Z IS
1005 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140000Z IS 12 FEET.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 25W (MAN-YI) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO SUPER TYPHOON 27W (USAGI) WARNINGS (WTPN34 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

WDPN33 PGTW 132100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 26W (TORAJI) WARNING NR 
019//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 21.1N 114.4E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 40 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 73 NM SOUTH OF HONG KONG
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 22 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), AS THE COLD 
CENTRAL COVER IS SIGNIFICANTLY SHEARED NORTHEASTWARD, AND SLOWLY
TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS IT IS EMBEDDED IN THE
LOW-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD SURGE. TS
26W IS BECOMING MORE SHALLOW AS IT IS TRANSITING THROUGH THE HIGHLY 
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, WITH COOL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND 
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH 
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE ANIMATED EIR LOOP. THE INITIAL 
INTENSITY OF 40 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE 
131355Z ASCAT UHR PASS.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: LOW-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY COLD SURGE

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   RJTD: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   KNES: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   DEMS: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 44 KTS AT 131329Z
   CIMSS ADT: 37 KTS AT 131730Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 35 KTS AT 131730Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 42 KTS AT 131800Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE
   VWS: 20-25 KTS
   SST: 25-26 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: FOLLOWING THE CONVECTIVE DECAPITATION, THE
SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED BY THE NORTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL
FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD SURGE FLOW THROUGH THE TAIWAN STRAIT.
TS 26W IS THEREFORE FORECASTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 
THROUGH TAU 12, AFTER WHICH THE LLCC WILL START TURNING 
SOUTHWESTWARD, 
WHILE RAPIDLY DETERIORATING, DUE TO HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS. 
THE 
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN DISSIPATION AT TAU 24 FOLLOWED BY THE 
INTENSITY DROP BELOW THE WARNING CRITERIA AT TAU 36.

MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT
IN REGARD TO THE TRACK, PREDICTING A SOUTHWESTWARD CURVING TURN
OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. AS ALL CONSENSUS MEMBERS SHOW RAPID
WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM, THE CROSS-TRACK SPREAD IS RELATIVELY
LARGE, DUE TO DIFFERING PREDICTIONS FOR TIMELINE OF THE
DISSIPATION, HOWEVER INTENSITY GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT.
JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS LAID CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS,
WHILE THE INTENSITY PREDICTION IS CONSISTENT WITH ALL MEMBERS
SHOWING DISSIPATION BY TAU 36.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: HIGH//
NNNN