Extra-Tropical Storm KONG-REY (23W)

WTPN32 PGTW 012100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 23W (KONG-REY) WARNING NR 032//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 23W (KONG-REY) WARNING NR 032    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   011800Z --- NEAR 32.2N 126.1E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 055 DEGREES AT 31 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 32.2N 126.1E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   020600Z --- 34.1N 133.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 40 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   021800Z --- 35.4N 142.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 270 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
012100Z POSITION NEAR 32.7N 127.9E.
01NOV24. TROPICAL STORM 23W (KONG-REY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 190
NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT
31 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY ANALYZED
TO HAVE COMPLETED EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION EVIDENT BY THE APPARENT
FRONTOGENSIS. THE ENVIRONMENT IS CONSISTENT WITH THAT OF AN
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE, CHARACTERIZED BY OVER 40 KTS OF VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND 23-24 C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE WIND FIELD OF 23W
HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY STRETCHED DUE TO THE INTERACTION WITH THE
UPPER-LEVEL JET. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AS IT TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN JAPAN. THE INTENSITY
OF 23W IS FORECAST TO REMAIN RELATIVELY CONSTANT OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS DUE TO THE BAROCLINIC ENERGY. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TRACK, BUT WITH
CONSIDERABLE ALONG-TRACK SPREAD IN RESPONSE TO DIFFERING
INTERACTIONS WITH THE JET AND MANY OF THE TRACKERS LOSING THE VORTEX.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 011800Z IS 998
MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011800Z IS 22 FEET.//
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WDPN32 PGTW 011500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 23W (KONG-REY)      
WARNING NR 031//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 30.5N 123.2E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 45 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 366 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF SASEBO, JAPAN
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHEASTWARD AT 27 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 28 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
AS INDICATED IN ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY,
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 23W IS RAPIDLY GAINING FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS, 
WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM THE CENTER AND A WARM 
FRONT EXTENDING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD. FORTUNATELY, BOTH EIR IMAGERY AND 
ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUE TO SHOW A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION 
CENTER, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. THE 
SYSTEM HAS MERGED INTO AN AREA OF EXTENSIVE PRECIPITATION THAT EXTENDS 
INTO WESTERN JAPAN AND THE SOUTHERN KOREAN PENINSULA. THE INITIAL 
INTENSITY OF 45 KTS IS HEDGED BELOW AGENCY SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES 
BASED ON THE CIMSS OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 38 TO 47 
KNOTS.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHEAST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   RJTD: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 47 KTS AT 011200Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 43 KTS AT 011200Z
   CIMSS DPRINT: 39 KTS AT 011200Z
   CIMSS DMINT: 38 KTS AT 010955Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL
   VWS: 20-25 KTS
   SST: 24-25 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 23W WILL RECURVE AROUND THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY 
OF THE STR OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS WHILE QUICKLY TRANSITIONING TO AN 
EXTRA-TROPICAL COLD-CORE LOW ON THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE SYSTEM IS 
EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AS IT TRACKS ACROSS 
WESTERN JAPAN, WITH AN EXTENSIVE REGION OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION 
PERSISTING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENHANCED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL 
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. AFTER TAU 12, 
THE SYSTEM WILL ACCELERATE EASTWARD UNDER A STRONG JET ENTRENCHED OVER 
JAPAN. DUE TO THE STRONG GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT, GALE-FORCE 
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIR AGREEMENT 
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH AN 80NM TO 160NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD 
FROM TAU 12 TO TAU 24. THE 010600Z GFS ENSEMBLE (GEFS) SHOWS A SIMILAR 
SPREAD OF ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS, WITH THE BULK OF THE SOLUTIONS AT MINIMAL 
TS STRENGTH AFTER TAU 24. RELIABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE JTWC 
INTENSITY FORECAST AND STEADY WEAKENING THROUGH TAU 36. HOWEVER, 
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS A 40-45 KNOT INTENSITY NEAR TAU 12 WHEN THE SYSTEM 
MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE WESTERN COAST OF KYUSHU.   

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
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