Typhoon YINXING (24W)

WTPN31 PGTW 050300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 24W (YINXING) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 24W (YINXING) WARNING NR 008    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   050000Z --- NEAR 16.2N 127.5E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF 
     SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.2N 127.5E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   051200Z --- 17.6N 125.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   060000Z --- 18.4N 124.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   061200Z --- 18.7N 124.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            250 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   070000Z --- 19.0N 123.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   080000Z --- 19.3N 120.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   090000Z --- 19.4N 117.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   100000Z --- 19.3N 116.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
050300Z POSITION NEAR 16.5N 127.1E.
05NOV24. TYPHOON 24W (YINXING), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 388 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD
AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
050000Z IS 960 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050000Z IS
36 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050900Z, 051500Z, 052100Z AND 060300Z.//
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WDPN31 PGTW 050300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 24W (YINXING) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 16.2N 127.5E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 75 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 388 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA,
PHILIPPINES
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 16 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 36 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS
CONTINUED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA AS EVIDENCED BY
FEEDER BANDS WRAPPING TIGHTER INTO A SYMMETRICAL AND MORE COMPACT
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST WITH DEEPENING AND OVERSHOOTING CLOUD TOPS
AND A PINHOLE FORMATIVE EYE. ADDITIONALLY, THE MSI LOOP SHOWS A
VIGOROUS POLEWARD AND A MODEST EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE FORMATIVE EYE,
LINED UP WITH A MICROWAVE EYE IN THE 042136Z WSFM 89GHZ IMAGE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ALSO PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
HIGHER END OF AGENCY AND AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES (SEE BELOW).
ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VWS, WARM
ALONG-TRACK SSTS, AND ROBUST VENTILATION FROM THE DUAL OUTFLOW.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE. 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
THE NORTHEAST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   RJTD: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   RCTP: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   KNES: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 79 KTS AT 042330Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 05-10 KTS
   SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TYPHOON YINXING WILL CONTINUE ON ITS CURRENT
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK UP TO TAU 36; AFTERWARD, A SECONDARY STR BUILDING 
IN FROM THE WEST NEAR HAINAN WILL SLOW DOWN THE SYSTEM THEN ASSUME 
STEERING, DRIVING THE CYCLONE ON A MORE WESTWARD TRAJECTORY THROUGH 
THE LUZON STRAIT AND INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA (SCS). THE FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT WILL PROMOTE A GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 100KTS 
BY TAU 36, FUELED BY A JOLT OF INCREASED POLEWARD OUTFLOW AS THE 
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE SOUTHWESTERLY JETS AHEAD OF A TRANSITING MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH. AFTER TAU 36, THE RELATIVE VWS WILL INCREASE, SST AND 
OHC VALUES DECREASE IN THE WAKE OF A PREVIOUS CYCLONE (23W), 
INTERACTION WITH LUZON, THEN THE DRIFT INTO A COLD NORTHEASTERLY SURGE 
IN THE SCS WILL SLOWLY ERODE THE SYSTEM DOWN TO 70KTS BY TAU 120. 

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH
AN EVEN ACROSS SPREAD OF A MERE 100NM BY TAU 72; AFTERWARD, THE
MODELS SIGNIFICANTLY SPREAD OUT WITH NVGM THE NOTABLE AND ERRATIC
RIGHT-OF-TRACK OUTLIER, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE UP TO TAU 72, THEN
LOW CONFIDENCE AFTERWARD, TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. THERE IS
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE TO THE INTENSITY FORECAST UP TO TAU 72, THEN LOW
CONFIDENCE AFTERWARD. 


FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
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