Typhoon BEBINCA (14W)

WTPN31 PGTW 160300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 14W (BEBINCA) WARNING NR 025//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 14W (BEBINCA) WARNING NR 025    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   160000Z --- NEAR 30.9N 121.6E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF 
     SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 30.9N 121.6E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   161200Z --- 31.6N 119.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   170000Z --- 32.2N 116.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   171200Z --- 32.4N 114.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
160300Z POSITION NEAR 31.1N 121.0E.
16SEP24. TYPHOON 14W (BEBINCA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 19 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF SHANGHAI, CHINA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION 
CENTER ON COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP CLEARLY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MADE 
LANDFALL, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL 
INTENSITY IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES RIGHT BEFORE 
LANDFALL AND FROM NEARBY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND IS CONSISTENT WITH
THE 6-HR CONVECTIVE DEGRADATION. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE 
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE RUGGED CHINESE INTERIOR. LAND INTERACTION, 
INCREASING VWS, AND COOL DRY AIR INTRUSION WILL LEAD TO RAPID DECAY 
AND DISSIPATION BY TAU 36. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY 
THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY 
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 
160000Z IS 970 MB.//
NNNN

WDPN31 PGTW 152100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 14W (BEBINCA) WARNING NR 024//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 30.5N 123.3E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 70 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 102 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SHANGHAI, CHINA
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 12 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 34 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A COMPACT
AND SYMMETRICAL SYSTEM IN THE EAST CHINA SEA WITH MOSTLY DETACHED
SHORT FEEDER BANDS WHOSE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST HAS MAINTAINED ITS
OVERALL CONVECTIVE DEPTH AS IT APPROACHED SHANGHAI. THE EIR LOOP
ALSO INDICATES A CONFINED RADIAL OUTFLOW AND COOL DRY AIR INTRUDING
FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERIES. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
FEATURE IN A COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED BASED ON ASSESSMENT OF WEAKENING DVORAK TRENDS FROM ALL
FOUR REPORTING AGENCIES AND REFLECTS THE SUSTAINED 6-HR CONVECTIVE
SIGNATURE. ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
LOW-MODERATE VWS AND THE DRY AIR INTRUSION OFFSET BY MODERATE
OUTFLOW AND VERY WARM ALONG-TRACK SSTS.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE.

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
THE NORTH. 

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   RJTD: T5.0 - 90 KTS
   RCTP: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   KNES: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 77 KTS AT 151730Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 73 KTS AT 151730Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 10-20 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE RADIAL

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TYPHOON BEBINCA WILL TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
UNDER THE STEERING STR, MAKING LANDFALL OVER THE CHINESE EASTERN
SEABOARD JUST SOUTH OF SHANGHAI AROUND TAU 06, THEN DEEPER INTO
RUGGED TERRAIN. INCREASING VWS, DRY AIR INTRUSION, AND LAND
INTERACTION WILL ERODE THE SYSTEM GRADUALLY THEN RAPIDLY TO
DISSIPATION BY TAU 36. 

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH
AN EVEN AND GRADUAL SPREAD TO A MERE 56NM BY TAU 36, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. GIVEN THE VARIABILITY OF A
LAND TRACK, THERE IS ONLY MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY
FORECAST. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
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